Calculated risk is the process of evaluating potential losses and rewards to make an informed decision. When a task is challenging, calculated risk can bring success.
An example of calculated risk leading to a successful outcome is Capt. Chesley Sullenberger safely landing a plane on the Hudson River after bird strikes disabled both engines following takeoff.
Determining a safe amount of risk is partially subjective, but experience often helps. However, experience can also result in unwise risk-taking due to confirmation bias, which is the psychological tendency to favor information that confirms existing beliefs. If a previous risky situation had a successful outcome, the experience could be interpreted as confirmation that the dangerous behavior was acceptable. Repeated success in similar situations can bias a person or group to feel comfortable even when the situation is dangerous. Even worse, this can justify more extreme risk-taking, creating increasingly dangerous behavior.
For example, say you accelerate through a yellow light rather than stopping. Soon you’re ignoring yellow lights and accelerating through red lights. Your successes confirm that your behavior is acceptable. You perform well and rationalize that your skills justify your behavior.
Calculated risk is a worthy method to achieve success in dangerous situations, but confirmation bias while boating can sway you to make bad decisions.
Sadly, the Columbia space shuttle disaster occurred due to an unfounded comfort with repeated thermal tile damage. Engineers had warned loudly that space shuttle solid rocket O-rings were not designed for extremely cold temperatures, but the warnings were ignored because of past success and the desire to achieve goals on time.
Structural failure of the OceanGate Titan submersible’s experimental carbon fiber hull caused its catastrophic implosion. Investigations cited critically flawed safety practices, inadequate testing, and ignored warnings about hull deterioration. In each dive case, prior success made the next risk feel more acceptable, despite ongoing concerns expressed by knowledgeable experts.
Previous successful outcomes can teach the wrong lesson about risky endeavors. The danger is not only the risk itself but also the false confidence created by earlier success in similar situations.
Calculated risk is a worthy method to achieve success in dangerous situations, but confirmation bias while boating can sway you to make bad decisions. Understanding and respecting the danger of confirmation bias can help you make better decisions that may not achieve all goals but avoid tragic failure. Vessel safety checks are a great way to avoid unnecessary risk-taking.
Will you choose to wait until a tragic situation occurs on your watch and suffer the uncomfortable consequences? Or will you heed the lessons about the perils of confirmation bias and sacrifice some goals to avoid tragedy?
