How to stop worrying and learn to live with tropical storms
Growing up in the Midwest, I didn’t think about hurricanes. That changed in October 2005 during a conference I attended at The Breakers resort in Palm Beach, Florida, when Hurricane Wilma stopped by for a visit.
Wilma made landfall near Cape Romano on the Gulf Coast as a Category 3 storm and crossed the state as a Category 2. Palm Beach was in its path. As my first hurricane, Wilma provided the full experience: wind, rain and even the eerie calm of the storm’s eye. Let’s just say it left a lasting impression.
Wilma caused an estimated $19 billion in damage and 30 deaths in Florida. When I finally made it back home, I swore I’d never get caught in another hurricane.
Twelve years later, in 2017, I retired to southwest Florida. You should never say “never.” We made an offer on a home on Aug. 17—13 days before Hurricane Irma formed—and we closed on the house eight days after it made landfall in Marco Island. Our new home was OK, but we lost landscaping.
Updating classes as new lessons learned
That year, I joined Cape Coral Sail & Power Squadron/22, having been recruited to instruct America’s Boating Course. In addition to teaching that class with Ted Dawson and Bill Harris, I volunteered to help Carl McGrath update materials for the squadron’s annual hurricane seminar. Carl, a longtime Florida resident, has lived through plenty of hurricanes. For the seminar, Carl used material from the “Hurricanes and Boats” seminar developed by Wilbur Hugli and Capt. Robert Turpin from Escambia County in the western Panhandle.
The material was great; however, as Carl had learned, the key to hurricane preparation is understanding local conditions. For instance, in Lee County, where Cape Coral is located, you won’t find any “hurricane holes,” and anchoring is an issue as there aren’t many places that an anchor will hold in a storm. Instead, Cape Coral has many canal communities located off the Caloosahatchee River. The city has nearly 400 miles of canals, of which only 200 have access to the Gulf via the Caloosahatchee on the east and Matlacha Pass on the west. The other 200 are in a closed system with its fair share of vessels. This makes the city a big marina as thousands of boats are stored on lifts in residents’ backyards.
Since the city gets new residents each year, we added a hurricane primer to our seminar. We introduced basics like the “dirty side” of the storm and how the direction of approach and storm path determine why some storms flood the canals while others drain them.
For instance, Hurricane Irma made landfall near Marco Island and headed north, passing east of Lee
County. This pushed the water in the Caloosahatchee River and the canals out toward the Gulf, draining the canals, leaving boats sitting on the bottom and collapsing sea walls.
Five years later, Hurricane Ian made landfall on Caya Costa and caused a storm surge that averaged over 7 feet in most of Lee County. Docks were destroyed and boats left scattered; many sank.
Two years after Ian, Hurricane Milton landed on Long Boat Key about 50 miles north of Lee County, leaving residents to face an average storm surge close to 4 feet.
Each storm presented new challenges to residents, and every time Carl updated the seminar with the new lessons learned.
The unpredictability of forecasting
In 2025, weather forecasters predicted an average Atlantic hurricane season. They called for 13 to 19 named storms, and we had 13. Then they said there would be six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. Sure enough, there were five hurricanes and four major hurricanes, but none of those storms made landfall in the U.S. The last time that had happened was 2015. Why had the prognosticators failed to see that?
Perhaps they don’t have enough data. NOAA has a database of hurricanes going back to 1851 called “Historical Hurricane Tracks.” Looking closely, you will find the early data only captures storms that
made landfall. So, they don’t have much information about hurricanes that wandered the Atlantic and didn’t make landfall.
This makes sense, as aircraft reconnaissance didn’t start until the 1940s and satellites didn’t cover the Atlantic until the 1980s. That means today’s forecasters rely on just a few decades of solid data for the Atlantic storm season. Limited data plus wrong assumptions can sometimes give us forecasts that miss the mark.
What does that mean for us? Forecasting will keep evolving as more and better data is captured, but
uncertainty isn’t going anywhere. What doesn’t change is our need to prepare.
Preparation starts with a visit to the National Hurricane Center website. It has educational articles, videos and real-time tracking. Tropical weather outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season start each year in mid-May.
This year NHC has updated how it shows storm paths. It dropped the “forecasted track line,” which could be misleading, and now only shows a cone with the most likely path. The further out in time, the wider the cone as the track will likely shift. If you’re inside the cone, expect impacts; if you’re just outside the cone, you still need to pay attention as the storm could move in your direction. NHC has also changed how it displays inland watches and warnings; these are now color-coded to make them easier to read at a glance.
All boating is local
From my first encounter in 2005 to now, I’ve learned one thing: Hurricanes are serious business. If you live in, or are moving to, a hurricane-prone area, you need to understand the impact these tropical storms can have on you and your community.
All boating is local, so you should learn about your local conditions and the best practices used by boaters in your community for protecting your boat. Many America’s Boating Club | United States Power Squadrons clubs offer a hurricane prep seminar; if yours doesn’t, think about starting one. It’s a great way to reach out and help others in your community. You can also take it online.
Stay safe on the water, and prepare early when a storm approaches!
HELPFUL LINKS
Below are websites our local members have found helpful. Each offers a different set of data that can be used to help you adjust your plans:
- CERA delivers storm surge and wave guidance for impending or active tropical cyclones in the United States.
- CYCLOCANE is a good source for information on global storms and keeps you up to date on the global spaghetti models.
- HURRICANE CITY covers storms in progress and has historical hurricane data for 139 locations.
